“That’ll be the day … “when the Fed hikes the rate … It could be in December !

   Schwaben Blog

November 20, 2015 

Weekly Statistics:

  Today Week Ago Year Ago
  20-Nov-15 13-Nov-15 20-Nov-14
S&P TSX 13,433 13,075 15,111
S&P 500 2,089 2,023 2,052
DJIA 17,824 17,245 17,719
OIL $39.39 $40.73  $75.86
USD vs CAD 0.7493 0.7507 0.8903
Gold $1,077 $1,083  $1,194


As more members of the Federal Reserve are starting to point towards a rate hike in December, market participants become more optimistic about the health of the US economy. In the past, investors did not respond well to the possibility of a rate hike due to higher business borrowing costs. Investors recently shifted their perspectives due to strong economic indicators. Investors are more confident that the US economy is strong enough to sustain an interest rate hike. Minutes from the October meeting of Federal Reserve officials supported the idea that rate hikes will be very gradual. This improved the sentiment of equity markets.  The Dow Jones, S&P and the TSX recorded gains of 3.4%, 3.3% and 2.8% respectively. S&P 500 recorded its best week in six weeks and the DJIA climbed back into the positive year-to-date territory. One of the major reasons why the Fed has not yet raised interest rates likely is lower inflation. However, recently St Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the rate of inflation will soon rise towards the Fed’s 2% annual target. This reduces concerns that stagnant inflation could dissuade policymakers from raising rates. Many members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are in the favor of a rate hike at the December meeting. The image below is of the CME FedWatch Tool, which shows the probability of an interest rate hike of 74% probability at the December meeting, up from 70% the previous week. Further, should interest rates increase; there is a 73.6% probability of a 50 basis points hike and 26.4% probability of a 25 basis points hike.


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